In a front page Asia Times Online article (6 April, 2007), Jim Lobe quotes a number of middle East experts opinions on the meaning of the release of the British sailors and marines.
WASHINGTON - If the administration of US President George W Bush is paying attention,
Which he probably is not ... governor bush has a condition, not widely discussed
known as inattention surplus disorder
the drama over the 15 British sailors and marines, whose release by Iran after 12 days of detention was announced in Tehran on Wednesday, was designed to convey two key messages, according to experts in Washington.
First ... that, despite its conventional military weakness and diplomatic isolation, Iran retains the ability to strike at Western interests when it feels sufficiently provoked.
Second, when Western powers engage Iran with respect and as an equal, they are more likely to get what they want than when they take a confrontational path designed to bully or humiliate the regime.
... Properly understood, however, the messages could form the basis of a new approach capable of yielding still greater results, according to Juan Cole, a regional expert at the University of Michigan.
... "Although this incident really did constitute a crisis - one that might have escalated to very dangerous levels - the resolution was diplomatic, and that diplomatic resolution could contain the seeds for future diplomacy, if the British and the Americans are so inclined."
The announcement that the sailors were being released in honor of the Prophet Mohammed's forthcoming birthday and the Christian Easter holiday was made by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who then met with the captives personally.
"Our government has pardoned them; it is a gift from our people," he said, ... "We approached the subject on a humanitarian basis. It was a unilateral decision on our end," he insisted.
Nice touch with an ecumenical flavor ... Ahmadinejad is skilled in statescraft and diplomacy
...
"I personally believe that the US action [in Irbil] ... accounts for why Iran chose to stage its capture of the British sailors," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University who served in the White House under president Jimmy Carter. "Iran appears to have gained something from its pressure tactics."
That assessment was shared by Trita Parsi, president of the US National Iranian American Council. "By taking the [British] soft targets, the Iranians put pressure on the US."
In addition to collecting bargaining chips, the original capture had other purposes, including rallying nationalist sentiment behind the regime just as it faced the imposition by the United Nations Security Council of a new round of sanctions for rejecting demands to suspend its uranium-enrichment program.
As important, however, was the message Tehran wished to convey to the West that it could indeed respond to what it saw as US provocations in ways that could harm or embarrass its allies.
"In seizing the Iranians, who, after all, had been invited by the Iraqi authorities, the Americans were seen as behaving aggressively," said Cole. "Now the Iranians have demonstrated that the Anglo-American forces are not in a strong enough position to afford to do these things. They can play tit-for-tat."
Sick agreed: "It is a reminder that Iran has quite an array of asymmetrical options available to it to counter indirectly the actions of the US forces in Iraq and elsewhere."
...
London officials have said the turning point came on Monday, when Ali Larijani, the Iranian national security adviser, gave a conciliatory interview to Britain's Channel Four television - an interview that was followed up the next day with a critical conversation between Larijani and British Prime Minister Tony Blair's top foreign-policy adviser, Sir Nigel Sheinwald,
Pay careful attention. Diplomacy often works through back channels
according to The Independent. However, Cole pointed to a shift in the British stance from one of threats and demands to a more diplomatic approach over the weekend, including confirmation by British Defense Secretary Des Browne that London was "in direct bilateral communication with the Iranians".
"These sorts of incidents are always to some extent about face, and apparently the Iranians felt that when Britain agreed to enter into direct bilateral negotiations, Iran had gained enough face to be magnanimous," Cole said. "On Sunday, they were admitted as equals, not scolded as little children. That created the opening for [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khameini and Ahmadinejad to climb down and save face."
William Beeman, an Iran expert at the University of Minnesota, said: "Iranians have been signaling repeatedly, and not just during this crisis, that they will engage diplomatically, but without preconditions and on the basis of equality. So now they say, 'You see, when we have the upper hand, you see how magnanimous we are; we are a charitable, civilized people. We are reasonable. You can talk with us.'"
Parsi said: "The Iranian message is that if you deal with us respectfully, through incentives, then things can get resolved rather quickly. If you only resort to force or impose sanctions at the UN Security Council, then you'll only get stuck, and Iran will respond in kind. They're hoping that the West gets the impression that that is the incentive structure through which it can make progress with Iran. Whether that will be understood in the West is obviously a complete different question."
Which West? Western Europe and the Americas? Or that wild-west pistol-toting faux cowbaby who looks so hot and manly in a fly-boy flight suit?
Understood in the wild West? Wouldn't count on it, as my faithful Choctaw Indian father figure Gene Mendoza, who fought in Korea and served 20 years in the U.S. military was wont to say "I knows what I knows. Don't confuse me wid da facts." Within the context, that was Geno's way of calling the WASPs at Barrington Hills Country Club out on their superior to thou bull sh*t attitudes.
I miss you Geno. Wish you were the great white father.
