Because more people read this blog than any of my other blogs, I'm going to update y'all on my NFL probability model (I think only 3 people ever looked at the blog)
WAY back in July, I published this information:
What I most like about this particular probability model is that the DETROIT LIONS are rated a top-tier team, even though they finished with a 6-10 record. They make it to the top tier by virtue of winning their last four games in a row!!!
Tier 1 teams: win 70% of their games
Tier 2 teams: win 50% of their games
Tier 3 teams: win 25% of their games
Home Team NFL wins 55% of the time
T1 - T2 wins 80% of the time
T1 - T3 wins 80% of the time
T2 - T3 wins 70% of the time
Tier I teams: NYJ BAL PIT NEP
GBP ATL CHI DET NOS
Tier III teams: BUF CIN DEN CLE AZC CAR
REVISED TIER RANKINGS - BASED ON A NEW SEASON !! AND NOT SOME CRAPPY< SUCKIE OLD DATA
TIER I TEAMS: Green Bay, Detroit, San Fransisco, Baltimore, Cincinnati**,
Pittsburgh, New York**, New Orleans, Houston
TIER III TEAMS: Indiannapolis, St Louis, Arizona, Jacksonville, Seattle,
Miami, Minnesota*, Carolina*, Washington (lost 4 in a row)
* Poised to move into Tier II - MN has had the lead at the half of four games, all of which they lost; they are inconsistent, and the quarterback situation has not been optimal -- I love the coaching troika of Lesley Frazier, Mike Singletary, Al Harris -- disclosure -- Mike singletary's sister-in-law lives right across the street from us and I've met him personally, and find him a rather remarkable and compelling human being - a true God-loving, Holy Man of God. I've also met Al Harris, and we BOTH thought, last year, that Detroit would be the sleeper team - note - I picked Detroit to be a top tier team as far back as last July!
** For whatever intuitive reasons, I think these records these teams have accumulated (and it is upon the REACORD, the wins, that I base my analysis - after all, it's whether or not you WIN that determines if you'll win again; not some fancy statistics drawn rather mundanely from a pool of still water. HOWEVER - Coughlin, the NYG coach is a tremendous tactician, and a proven winner, as is his QB, Eli Manning - when you have a great head coach in consonance with a great QB -- miracles can happen!
