Progress Ohio
A union-fueled election of equal importance to the recall elections in Wisconsin will take place this November in Ohio. This is because Ohio Republicans overcame their differences, and today passed Senate bill 5, which strips collective bargaining rights for state employees (among many other heinous provisions):
The two houses of the Ohio Legislature approved a far-reaching bill on Wednesday that would hobble the ability of public-employee unions to bargain collectively and undercut their political clout.They sent the bill to Gov. John R. Kasich, a Republican, who lawmakers said would sign it in the next few days.
After Kasich signs the bill tonight at 7 pm eastern, 90 days must pass before the law goes into effect. During those 90 days, Ohio residents are given an opportunity to block the bill from taking effect and force a statewide referendum on it by gathering signatures equal to 6% of the vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Ohio opponents of SB 5 have vowed to do just that, and should not have any real trouble acquiring the necessary 231,147 signatures.
The referendum will take place this November. If Kasich had signed the bill after April 6th, the referendum would have taken place in November 2012. While the composition of the electorate is bound to be more favorable to Democrats in November 2012 than November 2011, holding the election this year is still a big break for our side. Here's why:
- Strike while the iron is hot. SB 5 is currently very unpopular, with Ohio residentsfavoring repeal by an enormous 54%-31% margin. The bill so is unpopular it's already scraping up against the 25-30% dead-enders who supported Bush Jr. as he left office, believe President Obama is a Muslim, and think ACORN stole the 2008 election. As news cycles pass and memories fade, support for SB 5 can only go up. The earlier the referendum comes, the better.
- Difficult to get attention in Ohio in 2012. Ohio remains the most important Presidential swing state of all. As such, in 2012 it will be very difficult for anything except the Presidential campaign to gain any traction in the Buckeye state. By contrast, in 2011 SB 5 will be the main issue on the ballot. Everyone will know what they are voting for, and Republicans will not necessarily support the bill just because they also support the the Republican Presidential nominee.
- Force every GOP Presidential candidate to go on record against collective bargaining rights. Finally, holding the election in 2011 can still greatly benefit Democrats in 2012. Since the Ohio referendum will happen in the midst of the Republican Presidential nomination campaign, and since every Republican candidate will want to appeal to the party's hard-right base and elites, every single one of them will go on record opposing collective bargaining rights for public workers. This would not necessarily have been the case in 2012, when the GOP nominee would be able to offer up vague answers on the issue. As such, a 2011 referendum could actually have a bigger impact on 2012 than holding the referendum in 2012, since it will make the stakes in the 2012 election crystal clear to millions of public employees around the country.
So let's do this thing, and let's do it quickly. After we win in Wisconsin, let's turn our attention to Ohio.
For more discussion on the bill stripping collective bargaining rights in Ohio, read anastasia p's diary on the rec list.
