Wednesday, October 5, 2011

THE WAY OUT OF THE GLOBAL RECESSION

How to end the global recession: more public spending and financial reform.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz | Posted Monday, Oct. 3, 2011, at 5:52 PM ET
| Posted Monday, Oct. 3, 2011, at 5:52 PM ET
There is only one way out of the global recession, and government must lead the way.
As the economic slump that began in 2007 continues, the question persists: Why? Unless we have a better understanding of the causes of the crisis, we can’t implement an effective recovery strategy. So far, we have neither.

We were told that this was a financial crisis, so governments on both sides of the Atlantic focused on the banks. Stimulus programs were sold as being a temporary palliative, needed to bridge the gap until the financial sector recovered and private lending resumed. But, while bank profitability and bonuses have returned, lending has not recovered, despite record-low long- and short-term interest rates.

The banks claim that lending remains constrained by a shortage of creditworthy borrowers. And key data indicate that they are at least partly right. After all, large enterprises are sitting on a few trillion dollars in cash, so money is not what is holding them back from investing and hiring. Some (perhaps many) small businesses are, however, in a very different position: Strapped for funds, they can’t grow, and many are being forced to contract.

Still, overall, business investment—excluding construction—has returned to 10 percent of GDP (from 10.6 percent before the crisis). With so much excess capacity in real estate, confidence will not recover to its pre-crisis levels anytime soon, regardless of what is done to the banking sector. The financial sector’s inexcusable recklessness, given free rein by mindless deregulation, was the obvious precipitating factor of the crisis. The legacy of excess real-estate capacity and over-leveraged households makes recovery all the more difficult.

But the economy was very sick before the crisis; the housing bubble merely papered over its weaknesses. Without bubble-supported consumption, there would have been a massive shortfall in aggregate demand. Instead, the personal savings rate plunged to 1 percent, and the bottom 80 percent of Americans were spending, every year, roughly 110 percent of their income. Even if the financial sector were fully repaired, and even if these profligate Americans hadn’t learned a lesson about the importance of saving, their consumption would be limited to 100 percent of their income. So anyone who talks about the consumer “coming back”—even after deleveraging—is living in a fantasy world.

Fixing the financial sector was necessary, but far from sufficient, for economic recovery. To understand what needs to be done, we have to understand the economy’s problems before the crisis hit.

First, America and the world were victims of their own success. Rapid productivity increases in manufacturing had outpaced growth in demand, which meant that manufacturing employment decreased. Labor had to shift to services. The problems are not dissimilar to those of the early 20 century, when rapid productivity growth in agriculture forced labor to move from rural areas to urban manufacturing centers. With a decline in farm income in excess of 50 percent from 1929 to 1932, one might have anticipated massive migration. But workers were “trapped” in the rural sector: They didn’t have the resources to move, and their declining incomes so weakened aggregate demand that urban/manufacturing unemployment soared.

For America and Europe, the need for labor to move out of manufacturing is compounded by shifting comparative advantage: Not only is the total number of manufacturing jobs limited globally, but a smaller share of those jobs will be local.

Globalization has been one, but only one, of the factors contributing to the second key problem: growing inequality. Shifting income from those who would spend it to those who won’t lowers aggregate demand. By the same token, soaring energy prices shifted purchasing power from the United States and Europe to oil exporters, who, recognizing the volatility of energy prices, rightly saved much of this income.

The final problem contributing to weakness in global aggregate demand was emerging markets’ massive buildup of foreign-exchange reserves—partly motivated by the mismanagement of the 1997-98 East Asia crisis by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury. Countries recognized that without reserves, they risked losing their economic sovereignty. Many said, “Never again.” But, while the buildup of reserves—currently around $7.6 trillion in emerging and developing economies—protected them, money going into reserves was money not spent.

Where are we today in addressing these underlying problems? To take the last one first, those countries that built up large reserves were able to weather the economic crisis better, so the incentive to accumulate reserves is even stronger.

Similarly, while bankers have regained their bonuses, workers are seeing their wages eroded and their hours diminished, further widening the income gap. Moreover, the United States has not shaken off its dependence on oil. With oil prices back above $100 a barrel this summer (and still high), money is once again being transferred to the oil-exporting countries. And the structural transformation of the advanced economies, implied by the need to move labor out of traditional manufacturing branches, is occurring very slowly.

Government plays a central role in financing the services that people want, such as education and health care. And government-financed education and training, in particular, will be critical in restoring competitiveness in Europe and the United States. But both have chosen fiscal austerity, all but ensuring that their economies’ transitions will be slow.

The prescription for what ails the global economy follows directly from the diagnosis: strong government expenditures, aimed at facilitating restructuring, promoting energy conservation, and reducing inequality, and a reform of the global financial system that creates an alternative to the buildup of reserves. Eventually, the world’s leaders, and the voters who elect them, will come to recognize this. As growth prospects continue to weaken, they will have no choice. But how much pain will we have to bear in the meantime?

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

BARELY MAKING SENSE OF ANY OF IT – based on an idea suggested by Chase Pomerich:

A MEDITATION RECALING THE STORY OF JOB INTERWOVEN WITH THE BEATITUDES


Some people go through life, cursed, as children, from birth,
With loving, supportive financially comfortable families,
Safe secure households, neighborhoods, and communities,
Wonderful and like-minded family friends who
watch out for these cursed children
And know what limits have been set on them
And promptly act when those boundaries are crossed,
Whether or not crossed intentionally or
crossed accidentally,
And furthermore, they will report these
trespasses to the judge, jury, and executioner
(In most families, these responsibilities are
delegated to and hats worn by mother).

Why cursed at first? Because ultimately, LIFE intervenes,
Circumstances are turned topsy-turvy, and
What was once comfortable and familiar, is ripped away,
As if torn from bone like flesh being devoured
by jackals, hyenas, and zombies.
And, for all appearances, lost and gone forever,
Despite the honorable, dedicated intentions of
father, mother, aunts, uncles,
grand parents, cherished friends, fellow congregants,
business associates, etc, etc, etc.

Loss of employment
the loss of a job – even the loss of a career
(The computer revolution has obsoleted entire industries,
(and those employed therein; These jobs are not returning, ever;
(One must learn to reinvent one's self, perhaps
(Many times, and perhaps at ever shorter intervals of times in between).

Loss of loved ones
Death (suicide being the most brutal form
(to those accursed and left living thereof,
(Something, sadly, was wrong all the long
(We just never saw it coming, until the beloved one is
(Now too far and too long gone to be healed, much less revived.
(Suicide is the second leading cause of death
(of our accursed children, aged 15-24).

(Could it be that being born into what for all appearances
(is a very healthy and Nurturing environment,
(could it be the accursed children are not subsequently prepared to
(Cope with these simple truths: That much of life is about loss –
(That much of life is about failure, and that our bond
(to all of humanity, now, and in All times and at all places
(is that the singular commonality of our experiences is
(Woven together with our losses, and bundled up
(with our failures, and neither loss nor
(Failure is worth the taking of one's own life. We stumble, we fall,
(All of us stumble and fall – We are expected, compelled to,
(and demanded by the Universe to ARISE and CRAWL
(so that we might once again WALK and then RUN;
(So that ultimately we might once again FLY,
(sailing among the heavens, angel-like grace.)

Loss of good health
(Disease knows no socio-economic barriers
(as the revelers in Edgar All Poe's The Mask of Red Death
(would discover: No racial divides, no gender Differentiations.
(The cursed children of doctors too, and maybe even especially,
(Fall victim to the willful, wanton, in plain sight
(secret poisoning of our mother earth
(And their own childrens' weakened immunological systems.
(Cancer the indiscriminate killer; the ultimate
(Eegalitarian Strike Force of Death.
(The addicts' poisons of choice – alcohol, heroin,
coke or a myriad of others, alone, but mostly in combination,
(especially with alcohol, the great mixer.
(Accidents too, frequently random,
(SOMETIMES (and tragically, utterly Foreseeable,
(but – too late. The AIDS virus took so many unaware,
(back in the day when THE VIRUS was but a rumor printed
(about and hinted at solely in the underground gay undergroun press.
(Who could have foreseen that an infected blood transfusion
(Administered to save a life Would ultimately take that life,
(Especially when the potential devastation of the disease
(was assuredly NOT a secret And such consequences
(utterly predictable to the health care communities
(That administered their healing efforts to gay men
(and to intravenous drug users;
(“What? Ask Prez Reagan to worry about those
(damn junkie homos? Fat chance.”)

Loss of innocence
About one of every six women in America has been
the victim of a rape of attempted rape.

Loss of faith in flag and country:
In WWII – troops with head or spinal injuries usually
died on the battlefield.
In Veit Nam – they usually died by the time
they could be flown to Germany.
In Iraq (and Afghanistan, and the other Bannanastans,
most of the brain and spinal injured
can be flown to Germany for medical treatment
and these lives are saved.
BUT, those troops who suffer from such combat injuries,
the parapeliegacs, quadrapeliegacs, and brain-damaged,
the lives of these troops will never be the same.
Their physical lives have been saved, but they now
must make major adjustments
to have anything resembling a “normal” life.

Once upon a time, loved ones prayed that their soldier
might return alive;
Now they pray that their beloved soldier returns alive,
and not have been afflicted by brain or spinal injuries.
They pray too that their beloved soldier will not
become headline news for her torturing of prisoners,
children, women too, That their soldier will not feel
compelled out of a sense of hatred of “the other”
To rape the 14-year old daughter of an Iraqi family,
and then murder hef and heretofore Family,
and then burn their home down in order to
avoid detection, and punishment.

The LOSS OF the sacred, secure, SAFE HOME – father's castle -
the loss of community standing,
The total loss of self-esteem.

The outright theft of assets by trusted financial advisers,
The sudden and (apparently) inexplicable madness
that descends and lingers.
Alzheimer's and dementia too, such are these,
as if the fates had patiently waited,
all the while targeting these cursed children.

At least SOME of these tragic events will ultimately befall
each and everyone of us, And so, cursed are they as children
who are doomed to live for years Understanding only at
the level of intellect, LOSS as grave,
LOSS as tragic, LOSS as unbearable,
as these heretofore already mentioned –
(having mentioned only a few, the numbers are legion) -
Noting only the absence of the presence
of former peers, beloved friends,
who, because of circumstances
Beyond their control, are forced to disperse,
Forced to seek out the poorer quarters
where the ragged people go
And look for the places only the ragged people know.

And yet, Devyn, through all these losses
which you have endured
You remained faithful to the one to whom
you made your wedding vows to love, honor, cherish and obey
TILL DEATH YOU DO PART.
For twenty-five years, foregoing your own blossoming career,
BECAUSE You believed in him (far more than he in himself)
to be able to support your family
` All the while so dimly and vaguely aware
that he had begun the soul-stealing

Dance with Thantos before you ever knew him;
that depression and alcoholism
Cast lots for his soul, always ending in no decision,
because who can answer that question:
“Which came first, the addiction or the depression?”
And Thantos spun him every more rapidly, until the room rolled
And he had lost all control, and his soul was up for grabs
(But even in this, he was still a beloved child or God, AND
(You all the long saw all the good in him; all the potential).
And you never cursed your God, nor the fates, nor asked, even,
The most likely question of all: “Why me, Lord?”
THAT, was never about you. That lost cause
had been writ in stone LONG before
the two of you ever knew, that perhaps,
from your union, great things would come
(As indeed, great things have come –
withness Chase; withness Reed; witness you).

And while some would develop, as a means of self defense,
A steel-hard shell around their heart,
a cast iron cage around their soul,
a minefield around their mind,
You only look at people, and see the good in them.
You could have but did not become hard-shelled,
and been forgiven for it, BUT:

You are soft-shelled
You are open-shelled
And because of all this, I give you this gift.
That you might always remember what
I most admire about you

With love to you and ALL YOU LOVE:
A Survivor's Guide to Life – du moi à toi

BLESSED ARE THEY WHO SUFFER YOUNG,
EARLY, AND OFTEN, FOR IN THEIR
YEARS OF ABJECT MISERY,
THEY SHALL KNOW THE JOY OF COMFORTING
THOSE MUCH LESS FORTUNATE THAN THEMSELVES
WHOSE NUMBERS ARE LEGION.

THUS, IN SLUMBER, WE CAN DREAM
OF JOYOUS, CAREFREE, HAPPY DAYS,
OF A KINDLER GENTLER, MORE CHIRST-LIKE EVOLVEMENT
OF HUMANOIDS INTO HUMAN KIND
WE REST AUSSED KNOWING
IN OUR HEARTS, IN OUR GUTS,
THAT ONE DAY THE CHILDREN
OF IRELAND'S PROTESTANTS
AND THE CHILDREN
OF IRELAND'S CATHOLICS WILL
SING, DANCE, LAUGH AND PLAY
WITH ONE ANOTHER,
AS ARE BEGINNING TO SO DO
THE GREAT-GREAT-GREAT-GREAT
GRANDCHILDREN OF AMERICAN
SLAVE OWNERS AND
THE GREAT-GREAT GRANDCHILDREN
OF AMERICAN SLAVES,
AS WILL THE SONS AND DAUGHTERS
OF THE PALESTINIANS, TOO,
SING, DANCE, LAUGH AND PLAY WITH
THE SONS AND DAUGHTERS OF THE ISRAELI JEWS.


IN SHA' AHLLA