Bellwether poll for Malaysia
By Anil Netto

PENANG - Taib Mahmud, the flamboyant chief minister of the Malaysian state of Sarawak in north Borneo, marked 30 consecutive years in power on Monday. But any celebrations were subdued by a demanding electoral test on April 16, when close to one million Sarawak voters are eligible to vote in hotly contested state polls.

The state assembly was dissolved on March 21. Almost as a curtain-raiser, a former Malacca chief minister with ties to the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO), a businessman and a Malay rights activist in Kuala Lumpur triumphantly screened a "sex video" to invited journalists.

The video, taken by hidden cameras, depicted a man resembling

opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim having sex with a female prostitute in a spa. Anwar, who is now in the midst of a second sodomy trial that could lead to his imprisonment, has denied he is the one in the grainy film. Among those who have seen the video, opinion is divided as to the identity of the male. The diversion to gutter-level politics is yet another indication of the high-stakes political game now playing out in Malaysia. Although the Sarawak elections are only for seats in the state assembly and not the federal parliament in Kuala Lumpur, many observers view the polls as a prelude for the next national general election, which is expected to be called by Prime Minister Najib Razak well before the federal parliamentary term expires in 2013. In the last state election in 2006, four parties in the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition swept 63 of the 71 seats in the Sarawak state assembly. The opposition Democratic Action Party won six seats, Anwar's People's Justice Party (PKR) notched one and the Sarawak National Party (SNAP) grabbed one. That was before the landmarkpeninsula. The Sarawak state election this time is seen as a watershed poll for both the ruling BN and the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance), says Sarawak-based political economist Andrew Aeria. "If the BN wins, it will be full steam ahead for the 13th (federal-level) general election," he observes. "If the BN loses, Najib is in trouble, his reform agenda is not working and there will be further turmoil in BN ranks." A win for Pakatan will put it back on track to achieving more gains in the next general election, he adds. Because of the BN's ability to use state television and radio in its campaign, its splashing of "development" funds and other aid to the people while on the hustings, and its advantage in securing transport facilities to reach the large rural interior, the definition of victory and defeat should be viewed differently, analysts say. "Anything more than over 15 seats for the opposition may be deemed a 'win' for the opposition parties while anything less than nine may be considered a defeat," argues Aeria. "If the opposition parties win between nine and 15, it would be the status quo." Anything more than 15 seats for the opposition would be a bonus. Many political observers now view Sarawak as just one of 13 states in Malaysia, but it was not always like that. Sarawak, neighboring Sabah, Singapore and the Malaysian peninsula (then Malaya) came together to form the federation of Malaysia in 1963. Singapore left a couple of years later. Sarawak, which is almost as large as the peninsula, currently has 31 seats in the 222-seat federal parliament while Sabah has 25. Together the two states account for 25% of all federal seats. For many years, BN leaders in Sarawak were content to give Taib and his predecessors a free hand as long as he delivered the bulk of his state's 31 federal parliament seats to the BN. Indeed, in the 2008 general election, the Taib-led Sarawak BN, through four component parties including the biggest, Taib's PBB, delivered 29 parliamentary seats. national general election of 2008, when opposition parties made sharp inroads in the Political baggage This time, though, Taib carries political baggage that grows heavier with each passing day. His family has accumulated fabulous wealth through a property empire abroad and a family-owned listed company infrastructure company, Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd, which has for years dominated corporate circles in Sarawak. Malaysians got an indication of this wealth when Taib's daughter-in-law recently filed a 400 million ringgit (US$132 million) claim from her estranged husband in court, including what she claims is her share of property worth 300 million ringgit. Taib's son, Mahmud Abu Bekir Taib, wants to reach an out-of-court settlement to avoid a legal suit that would create intense public scrutiny into how the family gained such wealth. Taib himself has come under fire for his family's huge wealth. A UK-based website, sarawakreport.org, run by former journalist Clare Rewcastle Brown, the Sarawak-born sister-in-law of former British premier Gordon Brown, has provided a steady daily diet of startling glimpses into the alleged extent of the family's abuse of power. A related shortwave radio station beaming from overseas, Radio Free Sarawak, is bidding to challenge the government's long-held monopoly over the air-waves to reach potential voters in the state's remote interior. The 74-year-old chief minister has denied that his daughter's property empire in Canada and the UK was amassed through accumulation of wealth locally. Instead, he has paid tribute to his daughter and son-in-law's business acumen in investing in Taib's gratuity, earned from his previous service in the federal government, in property overseas. However, federal BN leaders now appear to believe that Taib is becoming a political liability as popular support for the ruling coalition erodes. In an attempt to stem that erosion, Taib has said he would leave after the next general election after he has ensured competent successors are in place. Many Sarawakians have heard such promises before and the perception among many is that Taib is not leaving anytime soon. They note it's not as if Taib doesn't have what the BN regards as "competent" successor candidates, such as his PBB party deputy Abang Johari and senior vice president Awang Tengah. In many ways, Taib has cultivated the myth that Sarawak belongs to him and his family. Many suspect what is really holding him back from retirement is that there are no family members ready to succeed him. A host of prickly issues in Sarawak has given the opposition plenty of campaign fodder. Among them is the destruction of rainforests and the state takeover of native customary rights (NCR) land to make way for oil palm and tree plantations. A growing number of natives are seething over dwindling sources of livelihood, relocation due to dam construction, poor returns from palm oil ventures with the state, and paltry state compensation for loss of land. In a state rich in natural resources, including oil and gas, stubborn income inequality and poverty is a source of growing disenchantment. Measuring poverty, however, has been skewed by politics and depends on the poverty line income threshold used. A pro-BN website known as sarawakreports.org (confusingly similar to Brown's sarawakreport.org) touts the government's line that the prevalence of poverty in Sarawak has plunged during the Taib years from over 30% in the mid-1980s to 5.3% in 2009. Philip Khoo, a political analyst, has countered that the official figure understates the reality because it is based mainly on food and purposefully deemphasizes non-food items such as rents, transport and education. If a more realistic income threshold is used, with food items accounting for just one third of the income threshold, the state's poverty rate could be as high as 30%, he argues. There is the crude physical evidence: Taib being chauffeured around in his Rolls Royce while many natives in the interior live without proper tap water, a reliable supply of electricity, insufficient transport facilities and a paucity of state health care clinics. Among the business community in urban areas, many have been put off by a lack of opportunities they attribute to entrenched corruption and cronyism. The bulk of their votes, some analysts predict, could go to the opposition Democratic Action Party. The PKR, too, could pick up seats against BN candidates due to similar Sarawak voter complaints. Its state party chief, Baru Bian, who has brought cases of loss of native land to court, has been put forward as a possible chief minister. This time around, the party is better organized and access to more resources from opposition sources in the peninsula. To add to Taib's and BN's electoral hurdles, many Christians in the state, who account for more than 40% of voters, are now upset over official obstacles to the circulation of Malay-language bibles. Along with the controversy over the usage of the term "Allah" by Christians in the country, that could swing support towards the opposition. Some analysts have even predicted an opposition upset victory in the state. The BN, however, is expected to use on-the-spot development projects and financial aid to prevent the opposition from building momentum towards national polls. For his part, Taib has said he hopes to hold on to the BN's current two-thirds majority in the state assembly. But as Taib observes his 30th anniversary as chief minister, his political future has never looked so uncertain. Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer. (Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)