Hmmm…49,000 new jobs in durable goods manufacturing, and 13,000 lost in non-durable goods manufacturing. No wonder Caterpillar is doing well and Kimberly Clark not so well. Foreign demand appears to be leading the recovery, not the challenged US consumer (as Amazon’s mediocre results should have made clear).
Exports overall are just below their 2008 peak, but exports to China have gone vertical, as the above graph indicates. China’s not a big enough market to drive the US economy, to be sure, but it (and other economies like it) do wonders for the manufacturing sector.
Otherwise the miserable performance of construction employment, maybe weather-related, emphasizes what the recent home price data tell us: the consumer balance sheet as well as the small business balance sheet (which is closely linked to commercial real estate) remains miserable.
All in all, a mediocre, slow-growth environment, pretty much in line with my expectations.
