Outside the Box
The Cognitive Dissonance of It All
March 6, 2011
I get a lot of client letters from various managers and funds, as you might imagine. I read more than I should. But one that shows up every quarter or so makes me stop what I am doing and sit down and read. It is the quarterly letter from Hayman Advisors, based here in Dallas. They are macro guys (which I guess is part of the magnetic attraction for me), and they really put some thought into their craft and have some of the best sources anywhere. So today we take a look at their latest letter, where they cover a wide variety of topics, with cutting-edge analysis and sharp insight. I really like these guys, and suggest you take the time to read the entire letter.Today (Tuesday) is the day I want you to start buying Endgame. The early reviews on Amazon are quite gratifying – writing a book is damn hard work, so when people say nice things it just feels good. Have a great week! Now let’s jump into the Hayman client letter.
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Outside the Box
The Cognitive Dissonance of It All
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."– Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Dear Investors:
We continue to be very concerned about systemic risk in the global economy. Thus far, the systemic risk that was prevalent in the global credit markets in 2007 and 2008 has not subsided; rather, it has simply...
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Pan Skeptic
March 8, 6:30 a.m.
Keynes gonn get yo’ mama…...Helicopter Ben…....Yawn. Attacking certain villains, deafening silence about others…......round and around and around we go…...exactly how is this “outside” when it’s exactly the same set of bogeymen every time…....start with the identical conclusion just work backwards with different leadups…......can’t keep my eyelids open…... 
Muralidhara Rao B
March 8, 4:17 a.m.
I am not an economist, but something about the first chart (total global debt) is not looking right to me.If a dollar borrowed is a dollar lent, who are the lenders - which countries and economies are they from? Or, are the numbers ‘gross debt’ (i.e. summation of all debt) and not ‘net debt’ (i.e. what one owes after netting off what is owed to him).
Second, if a treat debt as capital and GDP as annual turnover (‘income’ in US accounting parlance), is the world like a highly inefficent corporation, wherein the capital turnover ratio is not even close to one?
- Muralidhara Rao. B (bmdrao@gmail.com)
