Monday, April 23, 2007

Quality of Life Metrics: U.S. and Germany

The recovering actuary needs a fix. Numbers, numbers, numbers, must get my hands on numbers. Must massage them, assuage them, USE them to prove my points (to make my OWN reality, because that's just what this blogger does -- I create my OWN reality). I can do it, I can do it. How exciting. How arousing. The latent actuarial junkie is about to get his fix. Insert needle ... feels SO good.

Sheesh, I'm starting to feel a whole lot less worse about putting my wandering key-board troubadour career on hold for the past 42 years. I can use my numbers for good! I can slay dragons! I am become as Lancelot! Perhaps it always was my lot to traverse an apparently crooked back-tracing path to keep on the one straight path to which the universe, and Allah hath called me to walk. All is well in my world.

Quality of Life Metrics - U.S. and Germany (unadjusted)

Infant mortality: Germany 4.1 / 1000 U.S. 6.4 / 1000

Life expectancy: Germany 78.8 yrs U.S. 77.8 yrs

GDP / capita Germany $29,800 U.S. $42,000

exports: Germany $1.016 Trillion U.S. $0.9275 Trillion

imports Germany $0.801 Trillion U.S. $1.727 Trillion

population 2006 (e) Germany 82,422,299 U.S. 300,000,000

population density Germany 609 / sq mile U.S. 84 / sq mile


Okay. So, the Krauts (Ganzer, is Kraut, so I AM free to use what used to be a racial slur/epithet, just ask my Great Grandfather John, whose butcher store was vandalized during WWI by the gallant patriots who wanted to kick kraut butt (this side of the ocean only however -- the forefather of today's college republican fighting 101st stenographic and keyboard battilion),

the krauts -- 1. Live longer
------------- 2. kill fewer kids at birth
------------- 3. export more goods in $ than we do

but, the yanks -- a) we got more bread, more dough, by a LOT
----------------- b) spend a lot more of our dough on foreign goods (we support the WORLD)
----------------- c) got a WHOLE lot more room where we don't have to be so crowded

But, how much more bread, how much more dough, do the average John and Jane Dough in good 'ole Uncah Sam's You.Es.ofA have than the Herren and the Fraulienens of Deutschland?

Here's how actuaries are trained to THINK. Yes, dammit, we WERE trained to think.

Caution, adjustments to the crude numbers are coming up.

ADJ #1: there is an immense disparity in the distribution of wealth in the US. Corporate CEOs make at least 100's of times more money than working stiffs, maybe 1000's.

To compensate for this, I'm going to adjust the per capita GDP numbers by eliminating the wealth of BOTH the U.S and German billionaires. Many thanks to Forbes Magazine for being so good as to publish such information!

In 2006 there were four hundred and eighteen people in the U.S. whose fortunes amounted to one billion or more dollars. The total wealth of the 418 wealthiest (which TRUST me is completely inaccessible to you or to me .. these are shekels we ain't never gonna sniff, lessen we marries into the brood .. and even then, we'd probably have to sign away any access to it via a pre-nupt).

The combined wealth of the 418 billionaires in the US amounts to $1.268 trillion dollars. So, from the US GDP, (2005) $12.410 trillion, lets deduct the 1.268

$12.410 - $1.268 = 11.142 T which we will eventually allocated over the remaining
....................population of 299,999,582 ... (one more adj later on)
....................US working stiff's GDP / capita = $37,141

But, in order to compare pickles to cucumbers, we must deduct from the Kraut GDP the wealth of their fifty-five (55) billionaires. It's the lot of the working class stiffs that this analysis is trying to get a handle on ... which is consistent with the assumption that anybody making less than one billion a year, is a working class stiff. Which, seems about right, I suppose.

Germany's 55 billionaires' have wealth amounts to $0.2423 trillion ($242.3 billion)

$ 2.454 - $ 0.2423 = $ 2,2177 T to be allocated over a remaining population of
.................... 82,422,299 - 55 = 82.422,244
.................... Deutschland stiff's GDP / capita = $26,898

Couple of quick percentages, which might be of interest

US working stiff adj GDP/capita to Total US GDP/capita = 37,141 / 42,000 = 88.45%

German working stiff adj GDP/capita to Total Kraut / capita = 26,898 / 29,.800 = 90.26%

Okay .. now, this is truly another plus in favor of the U.S ... our wealthy have it better than the German wealthies. Ergo, if in the U.S., one desires to become wealthy, at least by becoming wealthy, they will be better off than the comfortable krauts.

Here's the part where my Individual Health Insurance Actuarial Pricing background helps me to justify my massaging of the numbers. Because there is one more significant adjustment that must be made to the U.S. average numbers ONLY. And not to the German adjusted working stiff GDP per capita numbers.

US GDP per capita numbers must be reduced (IMO) by the amount US citizens pay out of pocket for health insurance. Germany has a universal health insurance system. Whatever monies the average Herr or Fraulein puts into the system, comes back, plus some more from the government.

In the US, 15% of the GDP is spent on health care. Of this, the US government's share is 6.6%. The remaining 8.4% is a "tax", the price of living large in the Ewe.Ass.ofA. So the TOTAL US GDP needs to be reduced by 0.084 to account for the "health care tax", which is born by citizens not eligible for medicare or medicaid. That would be mostly likely, you and me, bubbuh and sistuh.

$12.242 T * 0.916 = $11.214 T don't forget to subtract out the wealth of billionaires

$11.214 T - $1.268 T = $9.946 T

$ 9.946 T / 299,999,582 = $ 33,154 working stiffs health care tax adjusted per capita GDP

So .. just how much better do "we the proles" have it in the Ewe.Ass.ofA? Compared to the Krauts, that is?

We don't live as long
More of our kids die at birth
BUT ... kind of on average, we make more bux than the WSK's $ 33,154 to $ 26,898

That would be about 23.26% more bux.

HOWEVER ... there's one more factor to consider, which I shan't quantify in THIS post.

The value of the $ versus the value of the EURO ... because, baby, that dollar be FALLen, Fallen, Fallen.

Lyrics to Beatles Ive Just Seen A Face
I've just seen a face,
I can't forget the time or place
Where we just meet.
She's just the girl for me
And want all the world to see
We've met, mmm-mmm-mmm-m'mmm-mmm.
Had it been another day
I might have looked the other way
And I'd have never been aware.
But as it is I'll dream of her
Tonight, di-di-di-di'n'di.

Falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.

I have never known
The like of this, I've been alone
And I have missed things
And kept out of sight
But other girls were never quite
Like this, da-da-n'da-da'n'da.
[ these lyrics found on http://www.completealbumlyrics.com ]
Falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.
Falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.

I've just seen a face,
I can't forget the time or place
Where we just meet.
She's just the girl for me
And want all the world to see
We've met, mmm-mmm-mmm-da-da-da.
Falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.
Falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.
Oh, falling, yes I am falling,
And she keeps calling
Me back again.