I found Larry Johnson's No Quarter Blog very helpful to understanding the outing of CIA agent Valerie Plame. But while I could understand his support of Senator Clinton, I found his attacks on Senator Obama to be quite uncivil and quite offputting. Of course, Obama partisans were often quite as uncivil and quite as offputting. The harsh and extreme language used to denunciate the other democratic candidate often resembled the screeds found in the radical right wing blogs. Quite a bit like watching a Lee Atwater attack a democrat. Like eating one's own. Bob Somersby might suggest "our side" plays shirts vs skins just as viciously as "their side." So for a long time, I quit reading DailyKos and Booman, and limit my political blog-reading to the DailyHowler, Digby's Hullaballoo, and The Left Coaster.
Bounced back to No Quarter today and found what is alleged to be an insider's look at the Obama campaign from one of a very few Clinton supporter invited to work with the Obama campaign.
I'll be watching the election results to see how certain states play out (compared to the 538 projections).
Of course, there are possible voter suppression, machine mysteriously malfunctioning, and other theft possibilities.
The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”.
The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico.
The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark.
This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.
Updated results bolded
Almost no chance:
Missouri (538 sez - toss up) [538 - slightly McCain]
Indiana (538 sez - lean McC) [538 - lean McC]
North Carolina (538 sez - lean Obama) [538 lean Obama]
Florida, (538 sez - lean Obama) [538 lean Obama]
New Hampshire (538 sez - solid Obama) [solid Obama]
Nevada (likely Obama) [solid Obama]
Too close to call: Ohio (likely Obama) [likely Obama]
Toss ups:
Virginia, (solid Obama) [solid Obama]
Pennsylvania, (solid Obama) [solid Obama]
Colorado, (solid Obama) [solid Obama]
New Mexico (solid Obama) [solid Obama]
Iowa (solid Obama) [solid Obama]
