I've been reading William S. Lind at the defense national institute web site. His weekly posts have informed me of military theory, an immensely important topic to a blogger who blogs of war, to a father who prays his son will never have to fight in war, and to a nephew who lost a beloved uncle in combat battle to a war. Lind's articles are prescient. He just gets stuff right, as did Scott Ritter. The following article comes from a Radar e-zine piece.
The Iraq Gamble
Right But Poor
Right But Poor
William S. Lind
PENNILESS AND PRESCIENT
Pre-war position: This arch-conservative commentator may have been the most prescient voice in the American media warning against the military dangers facing us in Iraq. His career began as a protégé of America's greatest military strategist, colonel John Boyd, and he has since achieved his own renown in that field. Prior to the war, Lind warned that invading Iraq would be of inherent benefit to both Al Qaeda and Hezbollah. He predicted, "When American forces capture Baghdad and take down Saddam Hussein, the real war will not end but begin ... as an array of non-state elements begin to fight America and each other." Bottom line: "It won't be pretty." He also pointed out that a basic tenet of military theory is that a democracy cannot win any prolonged war if the people are at all uncertain about the reasons for fighting. At that point, prior to the invasion, more than half of Americans thought Saddam had a hand in 9/11. Career status:American Conservative and websites like military.com, counterpunch.com, and antiwar.com. No major publications have come calling, so Still writing for a small audience. Lind is a contributor to the not many people are hearing the urgent warning he's offering now. "I think we're probably going to hit Iran and that situation could be ten times worse than what we've got in Iraq," he tells Radar.
(MG) I've blogged a lot in the past about the folly of attacking Iran. They've got 70,000,000 people. They've got an astute president. They understand US government duplicity, cheney administration war for the sake of enriching the military-industrial-academic-infotainment-neocon-theocon-fundamentalist complex, and the rovian reelection strategy. They have seen the enemy, and it is US.
(MG) And do we dare think for one moment their mullahs have forgotten how Kermit Roosevelt / Winnie Churchill / Ike gave the green light to the CIA to overthrow Mohammed Mossadegh when he was about to nationalize the oil fields and charge British Petroleum more money?
(MG) Have they forgotten how the US egged Saddam on to wage war with Iran (US payback for the embarrassment to the CIA for having missed the rise to political power of the aged Shiite cleric in France, the Ayatollah Khomeini) and how the US played both sides of the Iraq - Iran fence?
(MG) Have they forgotten how inept was the rescue attempt of the American hostages held in Tehran?
(MG) Have they forgotten the willingness of the Reagan administration to trade arms for hostages, despite US federal law PROHIBITING such unauthorized dealings?
(MG) Do the US political leaders understand The Art of War?
Sun-tau said:
"Warfare is the greatest affair of state, the basis of life and death, the Way (Tao) to survival or extinction. It must be thoroughly pondered and analyzed.
"Therefore, structure it according to [the following] five factors, evaluate it comparatively through estimations, and seek out its true nature. The first is termed the Tao, the second Heaven, the third Earth, the fourth generals, and the fifth the laws [for military organization and discipline].
"The Tao causes the people to be fully in accord with the ruler. [Thus] they will die with him; they will live with him and not fear danger.
"Heaven encompasses yin and yang, cold and heat, and the constraints of the seasons.
"Earth encompasses far or near, difficult or easy, expansive or confined, fatal or tenable terrain."
"The general encompasses wisdom, credibility, benevolence, courage, and strictness.
"The laws [for the military organization and discipline] encompass organization and regulations, the Tao of command, and the managements of logistics.
"There are no generals who have not heard of these five. Those who understand them will be victorious; those who do not understand them will not be victorious.
"Thus when making a comparative evaluation through estimations, seeking out its true nature, ask:
Which ruler has the Tao?
Which general has greater ability?
Who has gained [the advantage of] Heaven and Earth?
Whose laws and orders are more thoroughly implemented?
Whose forces are stronger?
Whose officers and troops are better trained?
Whose rewards and punishments are clearer?
"From these I will know victory and defeat!
"If a general follows my [methods for] estimation and you employ him, he will certainly be victorious and should be retained. If a general does not follow my [methods for] estimation and you employ him, he will certainly be defeated, so dismiss him.
"After estimating the advantages in accord with what you have heard, put it into effect with strategic power (shih) supplemented by field tactics that respond to external factors. As for strategic power, [it is] controlling the tactical imbalance of power (ch'uan) in accord with the gains to be realized.
"Warfare is the Way (Tao) of deception. Thus although [you are] capable, display incapability to them. when committed to employing your forces, feign inactivity. when [your objective] is nearby, make it appear as if distant; when far away, create the illusion of being nearby.
"Display profits to entice them. Create disorder [in their forces] and take them.
"If they are substantial, prepare for them; if they are strong, avoid them.
"If they are angry, perturb them; be deferential to foster their arrogance.
"If they are rested, force them to exert themselves.
"If they are united, cause them to be separated.
"Attack where they are unprepared.
"Go forth where they will not expect it.
"These are the ways military strategists are victorious. They cannot be spoken of in advance.
"Before the engagement, one who determines in the ancestral temple that he will be victorious has found that the majority of factors are in his favor. Before the engagement one who determines in the ancestral temple that he will not be victorious has found few factors are in his favor.
"If one who finds that the majority of factors favor him will be victorious while one who has found few factors favor him will be defeated, what about someone who finds no factors in his favor?
"If I observe it from this perspective, victory and defeat will be apparent."
From The Art of War, Sun-tzutranslated by Ralph D. Sawyer
