My Sunday column argues that India is turning around and that its takeoff is gaining traction around the country, even in places like Bihar and West Bengal. I’ve been a bit wary of India in the past, previously noting that the tech sector accomplishments are real but have tiny employment and that solid chunks of India remain abysmally undeveloped. That’s still true, but my latest trip leaves me more optimistic. India is steadily evolving in the right direction — while in China there’s reason for more caution. Under President Hu Jintao, China’s evolution has paused, and there probably won’t be more movement until after the Communist Party Congress in late 2012 installs Xi Jinping as Hu’s successor. I still would never bet against China, but I think India may be able to narrow the gap in the coming years.
One of India’s challenges will be to build human capital, especially in the form of education in rural areas. Another will be to deepen economic reforms and create jobs. As manufacturing jobs leave China because of rising costs, India could lay claim to some of them — if it gets its act together.
Your thoughts? I’d particularly welcome comments from Chinese and Indians, but anyone welcome.
