THE SHORT ANSWER - IS BECAUSE OUR ANALYSTS GET PAID ONLY TO SEE THINGS REMAIN THE SAME! EASY!

Why Didn't the U.S. Foresee the Arab Revolts?

Introduction

Left to right: Patrick Baz/Agence France-Presse -- Getty Images, Mohammed Abed/Agence France-Presse -- Getty Images, Hasan Jamali/Associated Press, Abdelhak Senna/Agence France-Presse -- Getty Images Left to right: demonstrations in Libya, Egypt, Bahrain and Morocco this week.

In the weeks since street protests in Tunisia led to the ouster of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and demonstrations in Cairo deposed Hosni Mubarak, similar pro-democracy protests have erupted throughout the Arab world. It is perplexing that the American intelligence community and the Obama administration appeared to be surprised by how rapidly the unrest spread from Tunisia to Egypt and now to Bahrain and Libya.

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• Middle East Protests: A Country-by-Country Look

Why is it difficult for U.S. intelligence agencies to foresee the strength of these movements? What factors prevent such intelligence from influencing American diplomacy?
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