#MENA Fearless Forecast - 27 Feb 2011

At this point IMO the optimism about the imminent departure of MQ and his friends is premature.  According to the news 20 rebels headed for Tripoli were halted at Sirte yesterday, lined up beside the road and shot.  West of Tripoli at Al Zawiya reporting in real time today indicated that the defenders are preparing for ANOTHER counter-attack by Qathafi forces trying to re-take the town.  Libyan air force pilots in Benghazi indicated today that while they would help defend the east, they would not participate in offensive operations in Tripolitania. 

Qathafi has a lot of money.  His southern flank is a very big desert across which more mercenary fighters can be imported from the desert peoples of Algeria, Chad and Niger.

If he does not experience a sudden failure of nerve in the next couple of days, this situation could easily "stabilize" into a long term civil war with Qathafi controlling Tripoli (2 million people) and the rebels a lot of the rest of the country

Sanctions won't bring him down.  He doesn't care about sanctions.  Speeches at the UN won't bring him down.  A no-fly zone won't bring him down.

Could Tripoli be fed under sanctions?  Will the UN enforce sanctions that starve the inhabitants?

This may go on for quite a while.  pl