, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi announced a temporary national unity government in Tunisia following the ouster of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, but the so-called Jasmine revolution has not been able to shed the country of the former president's legacy; as a result, the mass street protests continue.
The standoff between protesters and the authorities had showed no signs of easing on Thursday after a reshuffle of the interim government - which contains many of Ben Ali's ministers - was postponed the day before. Thousands of people are still camped in the streets.
The standoff between protesters and the authorities had showed no signs of easing on Thursday after a reshuffle of the interim government - which contains many of Ben Ali's ministers - was postponed the day before. Thousands of people are still camped in the streets.
The events in Tunisia that have seen an unpopular ruler toppled have inspired people in other countries. They have taken to the streets in Algeria and also in Egypt, considered the leader of the Arab world, in the shape of the most violent agitation against the three-decade regime of American-backed President Hosni Mubarak.
As in Tunisia, in these countries too there is no specified role for the political opposition forces.
This has led al-Qaeda's ideologues and strategists to stay their hand. Apart from issuing a few statements, they don't plan any immediate intervention. They trust that the upheavals will lead to further chaos - welcomed by al-Qaeda - but at this point there is no popular political force capable of providing alternative leadership.
Hence, al-Qaeda will wait and see in the hope that the chaos will sufficiently dilute the state apparatus to allow the group to establish a firm footing, as it has done in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
"There is no need for al-Qaeda to intervene at this in point," a major al-Qaeda strategist in South Asia told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity.
"Al-Qaeda does not have any role in these circumstances. This is a very preliminary situation. At the moment, these agitations are spreading all across the Arab world, but ahead is a void. There is no leadership to direct those developments.
"Therefore, al-Qaeda will let the agitation go on without specifying its role at this stage. Al-Qaeda's role will begin at the next level, when the agitations reach a climax and the system [of government] collapses in these countries. Al-Qaeda will then prop them up with its plans and strategies," the strategist said.
The unrest in Egypt, with its population of 80 million, has made people around the world sit up. It is the most important United States ally in region, and it is also home to some ultra-radical Islamic groups. It is possible that the protests could lead to democratization of society - or plunge the country into the hands of Islamists.
After thousands of people clashed with police on the streets of Cairo on Tuesday, tensions have eased following the Interior Ministry declaring that "no provocative movements or protest gatherings or organizing marches or demonstrations will be allowed".
Nearly 1,000 people have been arrested across Egypt and the demonstrations are considered to be the largest in decades. People are protesting against the poor economic situation in the country and demanding the resignation of Mubarak. Gamal Mubarak, Mubarak's son and potential successor, and his family have fled to the United Kingdom, Akhbar al-Arab newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Rashid al-Ghannusi, a Tunisian Islamist leader in exile, has made preparations to return. To pacify the international audience, he has sweetened his stance by saying that he would follow the model of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan by introducing moderate Islam.
The Islamist leader of Sudan, Dr Hassan Turabi, has been arrested following his threats to the government for a revolt along the lines of that in Tunisia. Islamists have taken to the streets in Jordan and vowed for more nationwide protests in the coming days.
The key issue, though, is whether the opposition forces, whether secular or Islamist, have the capacity to turn their protests into real change. There are examples of people taking to the streets against pro-American Muslim ruling elites during the US invasion on Afghanistan in 2001 and on Iraq in 2003, but those mobilizations eventually died down and did not become catalysts for change.
The Arab world's political forces, whether they exist in the corridors of power or in the opposition, share the same dilemma in that they don't have direct discourse with the common folk, and as such they fail to offer any popular leadership role.
This also applies to Muslim Brotherhood organizations in the Middle East, the largest opposition groups across the region. The Brotherhood was founded in 1928 in Egypt.
Since the 1960s, the Brotherhood parties have basically just struggled for survival. This followed extensive executions of its leaders and the Brotherhood splitting into factions. Groups became disconnected with the masses and offered them no cause for democracy or for their well-being.
A segment of the party was involved in terrorism through underground organizations and was therefore cut off from the masses. The leaders of the main party took refuge in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states or in Europe and the US. Their policies are often aimed at appeasing their patrons. The best example of this is the International Council of Muslim Brotherhood.
It has a 51% representation in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood party (the mother organization) and 24% in all other Muslim Brotherhood parties. It also has a 25% representation on the Muslim Brotherhood from the Gulf States, which is politically the most inactive organ among all Brotherhood parties and considered a voice of the shiekhdoms who funnel huge amounts of money into the coffers of Muslim Brotherhood parties. This branch ensures that the wishes of the Gulf state rulers are taken care of in the broader policy framework of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world.
The unrest might provide the Brotherhood organizations the opportunity for significant revival, even as al-Qaeda bides its time, waiting for the moment to capitalize on the chaos.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban, beyond 9/11 published by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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