The US government had some thoughts on Iran too, from 1954-1979 - which became no longer relevant when the Shah was deposedI’m meeting a retired Israeli general at a Tel Aviv hotel. As I take my seat, he begins the conversation with: “Well, everything we thought for the last 30 years is no longer relevant.”
That pretty much sums up the disorienting sense of shock and awe that the popular uprising in Egypt has inflicted on the psyche of Israel’s establishment. (Dear Lord - save me from opnion piece writers who use this device - creating a "straw man" the psyche of Israel's establishment indeed - there is no one psych, there is no one establishment - those people whom Friedman wishes to describe by the use of this shorthand device are sure to have very different perceptions of the present situation) The peace treaty with a stable Egypt "stable Egypt = dictatorial right-wing government that keeps its people DOWN was the unspoken foundation for every geopolitical and economic policy in Israel for the last 35 years, and now it’s gone. It’s as if Americans suddenly woke up and found both Mexico and Canada plunged into turmoil on the same day. AHEM - MEXICO IS in constant turmoil, each and every day
“Everything that once anchored our world is now unmoored,” remarked Mark Heller, a Tel Aviv University strategist. “And it is happening right at a moment when nuclearization of the region hangs in the air.” (nuclearization of the region HANGS in the air - the fucking cowardly Israelis have more than 200 nukes - and are all boo hoo - if Iran gets one too, we won't have anything to make creditable threats with
This is a perilous time for Israel, and its anxiety is understandable. (with the 4th largest military in the world, probably the 3rd largest defense budget, the 2nd most technologically sophisticated defense system - it is perilous for Israel - you mean - somebody might attack Israel with something other than 13-year old Muslims throwing rocks? But I fear Israel could make its situation even more perilous if it succumbs to the argument one hears from a number of senior Israeli officials today that the events in Egypt prove that Israel can’t make a lasting peace with the Palestinians. It’s wrong and dangerous. (kudos to youdoes Freidman)
To be sure, Hosni Mubarak, Israel’s longtime ally, (how can any country in the middle East have a ruler who is Israel's long time ally?) deserves all the wrath being directed at him. (excellent point) The best time to make any big, hard decision is when you are at your maximum strength. You’ll always think and act more clearly. For the last 20 years, President Mubarak has had all the leverage he could ever want to truly reform Egypt’s economy and build a moderate, legitimate political center to fill the void between his authoritarian state and the Muslim Brotherhood. But Mubarak deliberately maintained the political vacuum between himself and the Islamists so that he could always tell the world, “It’s either me or them.” Now he is trying to reform in a panic with no leverage. Too late. (so it always seems to go that you don't know what you've got till it's gone)
But Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel is in danger of becoming the Mubarak of the peace process. Israel has never had more leverage vis-à-vis the Palestinians and never had more responsible Palestinian partners. But Netanyahu has found every excuse for not putting a peace plan on the table. The Americans know it. (as succinct an analysis of the Israeli peace process as any I've ever read in the NYT) And thanks to the nasty job that Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV just did in releasing out of context all the Palestinian concessions (BAD JAZEERA >>> BAAAAAADDDDDD) — to embarrass the Palestinian leadership (NOT because it was news ... but for the political purpose of EMBARRASSING the Palestinian leadership)— it’s now obvious to all how far the Palestinians have come.
No, I do not know if this Palestinian leadership has the fortitude to close a deal. But I do know this: Israel has an overwhelming interest in going the extra mile to test them. (because whatever Israel wants, Israel gets!!)
Why? With the leaders of both Egypt and Jordan scrambling to shuffle their governments in an effort to stay ahead of the street, two things can be said for sure: Whatever happens in the only two Arab states that have peace treaties with Israel, the moderate secularists (right-wings repressionists) who had a monopoly of power will be weaker and the previously confined Muslim Brotherhood will be stronger. How much remains to be seen.
As such, it is virtually certain that the next Egyptian government will not have the patience or room that Mubarak did to maneuver with Israel. Same with the new Jordanian cabinet. Make no mistake: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has nothing to do with sparking the demonstrations in Egypt and Jordan, but Israeli-Palestinian relations will be impacted by the events in both countries. (again, a fine bit of analysis - this murky piece contains an incredibly uneveness in its content and analysis)
If Israel does not make a concerted effort to strike a deal with the Palestinians, the next Egyptian government will “have to distance itself from Israel because it will not have the stake in maintaining the close relationship that Mubarak had,” said Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster. With the big political changes in the region, “if Israel remains paranoid and messianic and greedy it will lose all its Arab friends.” (ROFLMFAO - IF Israel remains paranoid and messianic - that is all that Israel is about - paranoia and Messianism, AND GREED - and its Arab "friends" were never the kind that would stick with you through thick and thin - they were pragmatists who understood well that to maintain power and control in their country, to be able to deal with the internal enemies, they had to neutralize the external enemy, and that was not at all difficult.
To put it bluntly, if Israelis tell themselves that Egypt’s unrest proves why Israel cannot make peace with the Palestinian Authority, then they will be talking themselves into becoming an apartheid state (they already fucking ARE an apartheid state) — they will be talking themselves into permanently absorbing the West Bank and thereby laying the seeds for an Arab majority ruled by a Jewish minority between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. (yes, and won't THAT be interesting)
What the turmoil in Egypt also demonstrates is how much Israel is surrounded by a huge population of young Arabs and Muslims who have been living outside of history — insulated by oil and autocracy from the great global trends. But that’s over. (oh TOM TOM, "lliving outside of history" they are only living out of sight of the American media and political elites ... and they have NEVER been insulated by oil and autocracy from the so-called "great global trends" - none of which, I dare say, would include the overarching theme of the 20th century - the overthrow of colonialism
“Today your legitimacy has to be based on what you deliver,” the Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, explained to me in his Ramallah office. “Gone are the days when you can say, ‘Deal with me because the other guys are worse.’ ” (well, that is because, this is so obvious that even the AMERICAN PUBLIC gets it)
I had given up on Netanyahu’s cabinet and urged the U.S. to walk away. (YOU, Tom Friedman hold this much sway over the U.S.?) But that was B.E. — Before Egypt. Today, I believe President Obama should put his own peace plan on the table, bridging the Israeli and Palestinian positions, and demand that the two sides negotiate on it without any preconditions. It is vital for Israel’s future — at a time when there is already a global campaign to delegitimize the Jewish state (the Jewish state has spend the last 64 years further and further deligitimatizing itself) — that it disentangle itself from the Arabs’ story as much as possible. There is a huge storm coming, Israel. Get out of the way.
