Compound interest in Myanmar By Bertil Lintner BANGKOK - While the outside world grapples with how much power Myanmar's new partly civilian government will command, the country's still ruling generals are literally digging in, taking no chances of a substantial power shift after last November's general elections. Those who predicted that the blatantly rigged polls would mean something more than further institutionalizing the military regime may now have to reevaluate those assessments. United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon said in New York on February 5 that he hoped the new elected parliament would mark "the beginning of a change in the status quo" in Myanmar. He said that the appointment of retired general Thein Sein as the new president was "an important step". However, those hopes were dashed just days after Ki-moon   presented his optimistic scenario for Myanmar's political future. The old junta strongman, General Than Shwe, decided against retirement and will become the chairman of a new seven-member "State Supreme Council", which, as the name suggests, will be the most powerful institution in the country. Significantly, the new constitution, under which last year's elections were held and the new government formed, does not mention or legally mandate the creation of any such body. Many earlier thought Than Shwe would retain influence through a constitutionally mandated 11-member National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), which will be led by the president. Apart from chairman Than Shwe, the extra-constitutional State Supreme Council will also include the number two in the old junta hierarchy, General Maung Aye. Other former members of the now dissolved junta, known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), will include Thura Shwe Mann, a known Than Shwe ally who supposedly retired from military service to become a "civilian politician" before last year's election. He has also been appointed the new speaker of the Lower House of the new National Assembly. More importantly, a new village has been built on the outskirts of the capital Naypyidaw, apparently to ensure that members of the top brass remain in view and stay in step with Than Shwe's new political order. According to a town plan leaked to Asia Times Online, 16 new homes have or are in the process of being built behind a high-walled compound for the country's 16 top military leaders. Than Shwe's own residence sits at the center of this exclusive, closely guarded "gated community". He will reside in a huge mansion, complete with a sprawling garden, tree-lined driveway and swimming pool, according to the town plan. Next door, the plan shows, his deputy Maung Aye will reside in a considerably smaller villa. Homes in the compound have also been reserved for Thein Sein, the former lieutenant-general-turned-civilian president, supposedly retired former general Thura Shwe Mann, and ex-Lieutenant General Tin Aye, now chairman of the Election Commission. The other houses will belong to other generals and newly appointed parliamentarians. According to the source who leaked the town plans, Than Shwe wants to make sure that no one in his flock goes astray: "It's like they are under some kind of house arrest. Than Shwe is dead-scared of any possible split, or even disagreements, within the top military leadership," the source said. To guard against potential threats, there is a complex network of bunkers and bomb-proof culverts built under Than Shwe's presumptuous new residence, according to the plan. Apart from a domestic revolt, Than Shwe is known to fear a possible US-led foreign invasion. Mild dissent Historically, Myanmar's ruling military has demonstrated a remarkable ability to remain united in the face of both domestic protests and international condemnation, particularly of its abysmal rights record. However, divergent opinions over how to handle public unrest became apparent among junta leaders in late 2007, when hundreds of thousands of Buddhist monks marched through the old capital Yangon and other cities and towns. There was also reportedly disagreement among the top brass over whether international aid should be accepted after Cyclone Nargis devastated much of lower Myanmar in May 2008. According to a cable from the US Embassy in Yangon, which was sent shortly after the cyclone and made public by WikiLeaks in February this year, both Than Shwe and Thura Shwe Mann were reluctant to allow international rescue workers into the country. "Than Shwe remained worried about a US invasion and [was] determined to hold on to power," the leaked cable said. Than Shwe was eventually persuaded by other top generals to give rescue workers access to the affected areas, but only after more than a hundred thousand people had perished and hundreds of thousands more were dislocated or otherwise adversely impacted by the natural disaster. Faced with a Buddhist monk-led revolt in 2007, both Than Shwe and his deputy Maung Aye "gave the orders to crackdown on the monks, including shooting them if necessary", according to another US cable made available by WikiLeaks. Dated November 28, 2007, that cable alleges that Thura Shwe Mann disagreed with the decision to suppress the monk-led anti-government manifestation, but carried it out while "quietly advising regional commanders to do so with minimal bloodshed". With the country's 16 most powerful men living together inside a new compound, future disagreements will be more easily managed, some sources suggest. The appointment of Thein Sein as president will also ensure that little changes after the election and the formation of a new National Assembly. Myanmar sources draw parallels with the Machiavellian tactics deployed by former strongman Ne Win, who "retired" as president of the country in 1981 and symbolically handed power to San Yu, a weak and colorless figure who obediently complied with his boss's wishes. Ne Win also stayed on as chairman of the then ruling BurmaSocialist Program Party, the country's supreme authority, until both he and San Yu resigned in 1988 amid massive anti-government demonstrations that swept the country. According to the assessment of some Myanmar insiders, Thein Sein has become "Than Shwe's San Yu". As one of the leaked US cables suggests, Thein Sein may have been among those who wanted to accept foreign assistance after Cyclone Nargis. However he is not known to have ever challenged any major official policy - no matter how controversial. On May 9, 2001, when Thein Sein served as a major general and commander of the Myanmar Army's Golden Triangle Command in eastern Shan State, he said in a speech before former rebels in the town of Mong La near the Chinese border: "I was in Mong Ton and Mong Hsat for two weeks. U Wei Xuegang and U Bao Youri from the Wa groups are real friends." Wei and Bao may have made peace with the central government, but both have been indicted by a US court for their involvement in the Golden Triangle drug trade, which includes the production of methamphetamines as well as heroin. To Thein Sein, however, they were "friends" of the regime. Such tow-the-line statements indicate to observers that Thein Sein will remain a loyal servant to Than Shwe in his new presidential capacity. According to another of the leaked US Embassy cables, "Than Shwe's isolation and paranoia know no bounds ... the question is who is brave enough to shunt Than Shwe aside? Most Burmese [Myanmars] tell us no one." Because all the top generals will be closely guarded neighbors under the watchful eye of a general who will remain the country's most powerful player, the potential for an internal coup seems as remote as the country's democratic prospects under "civilian" rule. Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and the author of several books on Myanmar. He is currently a writer with Asia Pacific Media Services. (Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)