Gaddafi reaches tipping point  By Victor Kotsev TEL AVIV - The first stage of a reign of terror is to destroy the middle ground, forcing people to choose sides. The second stage is to instill terror in them, forcing them to choose one's side for fear of what would happen to them if they don't. It now appears that this scenario is rapidly unfolding in Libya. Muammar Gaddafi is concentrating large numbers of soldiers, loyal militiamen and pan-African mercenaries near his strongholds in the western part of Libya. On Thursday, the violence escalated, with pro-government forces attacking the rebels, and gun battles raged in several cities, killing hundreds. The top human-rights official of France, Francois Zimeray, estimated that up to 2,000 people had died so far in the confrontations. Gaddafi seems to have reached the point of having little left to   lose. Unlike Tunisia's Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and (arguably) Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, he has no safe place to hide if he backs down. He is facing a death sentence at the hands of the rebels at home and an indictment, possibly even for crimes against humanity, abroad. His few major international allies like him only in his capacity to stay in control and to deliver Libyan goodies. This makes him particularly dangerous. As ruthless as it has been, his clampdown on the protests until now has come just short of completely ripping apart the frail social fabric of his country. A civil war has only been a potential unwanted consequence of his attempts to stay in power. There are signs that this is changing. A desperate man is capable of desperate actions, including setting neighbor against neighbor in a bloody orgy that has precedent in many recent African conflicts. The prominence of the foreign militias in the fighting - according to The New York Times, the so-called Islamic Pan African Brigade which the Libyan dictator recruited "years ago as part of a scheme to bring the African nations around Libya into a common union" and sent to various war-torn parts of the continent to practice - is a particularly worrisome sign. Witnesses are reporting that these mercenaries are currently the main agent behind the atrocities. Researchers of conflict often describe an invisible force, inherent in people's established (social, economic, personal, etc) relationships, which seeks to preserve the existing status quo in a given society. This force is one of the largest problems peacebuilders face in cases of protracted conflict, but it also helps preserve the internal balance in societies that have enjoyed long periods of relative stability. Despite the fragility of Libyan society, which I described in my article Scars show as Libya drowns in blood (Asia Times Online, February 24 2011), the country falls in the latter category. This explains all the defections from the military and the police. Even members of the elite Libyan units of Gaddafi's force, recruited largely from his own tribe, have refused to obey orders to kill their fellow countrymen. If that normalizing force is to be broken, a considerable external shock is necessary. This is precisely where the foreign militias come in. Once - and if - the atrocities reach a certain point, there will be no way for Gaddafi's reluctant Libyan allies to stand by idly. They will have to either face the uncertain future of abandoning their leader and placing themselves at the mercy of their long-standing tribal rivals (thus foregoing considerable privileges they have enjoyed), or to throw their lots with him, and to take part in killing their compatriots. The latter scenario echoes a familiar pattern from other African conflicts. Forcefully shattering the bonds between people in order to ensure the loyalty of one's soldiers has become something of a hallmark of warfare on the continent. In its extreme form, it can be seen in the methods by which child soldiers are recruited by various rebel forces throughout Africa: time and again, abducted children are made to commit atrocities against their own kin in order to ensure their having nowhere left to desert to. The Libyan dictator has had ample opportunity to study this pattern over the years, including through his support of dreadful rebel movements in countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. If Gaddafi is successful in stoking a full-blown civil war and rallying a considerable number of people behind him, he could hope for a swift victory. He still has at his disposal large amounts of weaponry stockpiled over the years, and all he lacks is an army of people willing to use these weapons to conquer the rebel territories. Once that is accomplished, he would unleash a cycle of deadly repressions that would break the back of any opposition. It is another familiar pattern: history is full of examples where, in the words of Chinese leader Mao Zedong, power grows out of the barrel of a gun. The culmination of the cycle of terror would be a purge of his own loyalists who initially showed reluctance to act. Such a gamble, however, is not certain to succeed. Firstly, it is possible that members of his own extended circle will overthrow him before he can execute it successfully, to avoid becoming his blind instruments of oppression. The forces of social solidarity are still largely intact, and the reported widespread defection of military and police units is an encouraging sign. As American think-tank Stratfor has reported, there are indications of a military coup in the works. Secondly, even if he manages to consolidate his power base, Gaddafi would need a quick victory to reassert control over the country. Otherwise, he faces an international intervention - but not necessarily one by the United States acting within the framework of a United Nations resolution. While he is consolidating his hold over the west part of the country, the rebels are also consolidating their power base in the east. At least some of them are likely looking urgently for weapons and equipment to fight him. They have already been able to acquire arms from abandoned depots, and, according to another New York Times report, there are signs that they are quickly evolving "into an increasingly well-armed revolutionary movement". If a balance of power is reached between the two sides, it will only be a matter of time before various secondary international actors and shady global smuggling networks set foot in the country and start playing the sides off against each other to tap into the country's wealth of natural resources. This is yet another common pattern in recent conflicts, and Gaddafi is intimately familiar with it. He has at times been one of these vultures. A more legitimate international intervention could also materialize down the line. On Thursday, the Barack Obama administration announced that "all options" for the United States were being considered. Discussions of possible measures to restrain the regime have also picked up at the United Nations. For now, however, the international community has made do with freezing Gaddafi's assets abroad and issuing strongly-worded condemnations. According to many analysts, decisive military action is not forthcoming, partly due to the dependence of Europe on Libyan oil and gas. The precedent set by other deadly African conflicts - including the massacres in Darfur and Rwanda - also suggests that the international community will keep dragging its feet. To use a mathematical metaphor, there are still many unknown variables in the equation. Some reports coming early on Friday morning suggest that rebel forces were spectacularly successful against Gaddafi's mercenaries. The instability in Libya has also caused the price of oil to sky-rocket, and it is possible that this - rather than humanitarian concerns - would spur the United States and the international community into action. If Gaddafi's situation appears hopeless, or if the rebels appear to be able to deliver stability and oil, the Italians and the rest of the Europeans could ditch the Libyan dictator. Last but not least, we can only guess the calculations of Gaddafi's extended circle. According to most observers, Friday is going to be a crucial day. The rebels have called for a popular march on Tripoli, where Gaddafi is holding in reserve his crack forces. Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv. (Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)